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2013–14 South Pacific cyclone season
The 2013–14 South Pacific cyclone season was a near normal tropical cyclone season, with six tropical cyclones occurring within the basin between 160°E and 120°W. The season ran from November 1, 2013 to April 30, 2014, however, the first four tropical disturbances occurred during October 2013 and were included as a part of the season. During the season, tropical cyclones were officially monitored by the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS), Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) and New Zealand's MetService. The United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and other national meteorological services including Météo-France and NOAA also monitored the basin during the season. During the season there were 21 significant tropical disturbances were assigned a number and an "F" suffix by the FMS's Regional Specialized Meteorological Center in Nadi, Fiji (RSMC Nadi), including the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Hadi from the Australian region. The BoM, MetService and RSMC Nadi all estimated sustained wind speeds over a period of 10-minutes and used the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale, while the JTWC estimated sustained winds over a 1-minute period, which are subsequently compared to the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale (SSHS).
==Seasonal forecasts==
Ahead of the cyclone season, the BoM, the FMS, MetService, the New Zealand National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and various other Pacific Meteorological services, all contributed towards the Island Climate Update tropical cyclone outlook that was released during October 2013. The outlook took into account the ENSO neutral conditions that had been observed across the Pacific and analogue seasons that had ENSO neutral conditions occurring during the season.〔 The outlook called for a near average number of tropical cyclones for the 2013–14 season, with eight to twelve named tropical cyclones, to occur between 135°E and 120°W compared to an average of 10.〔 At least four of the tropical cyclones were expected to become category 3 severe tropical cyclones, while three could become category 4 severe tropical cyclones, they also noted that a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone was unlikely to occur.〔〔 In addition to contributing towards the Island Climate Update outlook, the FMS and the BoM both issued their own seasonal forecasts for the South Pacific region.〔〔
The BoM issued 3 seasonal forecasts for the South Pacific region between 142.5°E and 120°W, one for the Western Southern Pacific region between 142.5°E and 165°E and one for the Eastern Southern Pacific region between 165°E and 120°W.〔 They noted that the tropical Pacific Ocean was currently experiencing neutral ENSO conditions which meant that there was no strong shift expected in the average location of tropical cyclone formation.〔 They also noted that there was nothing in the broad climate drivers to suggest anything, but a typical tropical cyclone season for the South Pacific region.〔 As a result, they predicted that the South Pacific region as a whole, would experience near average tropical cyclone activity during the coming season with a 48% chance of it being above average.〔 The Western region was predicted to have 56% chance of being above average while the Eastern region had a 47% chance of being above average.〔 Within their outlook the FMS predicted that between four and eight tropical cyclones, would occur within the basin compared to an average of around 7.4 cyclones.〔 At least two of the tropical cyclones were expected to become category 3 severe tropical cyclones, while 1-2 might intensify into a category 4 or 5 severe tropical cyclones.〔 They also reported that the tropical cyclone genesis trough was expected to be located near to and to the west of the International Dateline.〔 This was based on the expected and predicted ENSO conditions, and the existence of the Pacific warm pool of sub-surface temperature anomalies in this region.〔
The FMS and Island Climate Update tropical cyclone outlooks both assessed, the risk of a tropical cyclone affecting a certain island or territory.〔〔 As the tropical cyclone genesis trough of low pressure was expected to be located near to and to the west of the International Dateline, normal or slightly above normal activity was expected for areas near the dateline.〔〔 It was also predicted that activity between Vanuatu and New Caledonia, as well as east of the International Date Line to be normal or below normal during the season.〔 The Island Climate Update Outlook predicted that Vanuatu and New Caledonia had a reduced chance of being affected by multiple tropical cyclones.〔 The Cook Islands, Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoan Islands, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Wallis and Futuna and French Polynesia's Austral and Society Islands were all predicted to have a normal chance of being affected by a tropical cyclone.〔 Niue and New Zealand were predicted to face an elevated risk while French Polynesia's Tuamotu Archipelago and Marquesas Islands, Kiribati and the Pitcairn Islands, had an unlikely chance of being affected by a tropical cyclone.〔 The FMS outlook predicted that the Cook and Samoan Islands, Tokelau and Niue had a below average risk of being affected by a tropical cyclone.〔 The Solomon Islands, Wallis and Futuna, Vanuatu and Tonga were predicted to face an average risk of being affected by a tropical cyclone.〔 New Caledonia, Tuvalu and Fiji were predicted to face an above average chance of being affected by a tropical cyclone.〔 The FMS also predicted that there was an increased risk of severe tropical cyclones, affecting the region this year when compared to the previous season. There was a very high risk of Wallis and Futuna, Tonga, Fiji and New Caledonia being affected by a severe tropical cyclone.〔 The Samoan Islands, Tokelau, Niue, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu had a high risk, while the Cook Islands had a low to moderate risk of being affected by a severe tropical cyclone.〔
抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』
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